Brazil

“Brazil is the country of the future—and always will be.” This sardonic observation, attributed to various sources over the past century, captures the central paradox of Latin America’s dominant power. With 215 million people, the world’s eighth-largest economy (approximately $2.2 trillion GDP), a territory larger than the contiguous United States, the Amazon rainforest (which produces roughly 6% of the world’s oxygen and contains 10% of all species on Earth), and the largest arable land reserves of any country, Brazil possesses all the material prerequisites for great power status. Yet decade after decade, the promise remains unfulfilled—sabotaged by inequality so extreme that it would shame a medieval kingdom, by political corruption that has brought down presidents and paralyzed institutions, and by an economic model that lurches between commodity-fueled booms and devastating busts.

Understanding Brazil matters for geopolitics because the world’s emerging multipolar order cannot function without it. As a founding member of BRICS, a participant in the G20, the custodian of the Amazon, and the natural leader of South America, Brazil is essential to the Global South’s claim for a greater voice in international affairs. Whether Brazil will finally translate its potential into lasting influence—or continue to underperform its endowment—is a question with consequences far beyond Latin America.

Geographic Foundations¶

Brazil shares borders with every South American country except Chile and Ecuador—ten nations in total. This continental scale provides both strategic depth and enormous diversity:

The Amazon Basin, covering approximately 5.5 million square kilometers of Brazilian territory (roughly 60% of the country), is the world’s largest tropical rainforest and the greatest repository of biodiversity on Earth. The Amazon River system carries approximately 20% of the world’s fresh water. The forest’s role in global climate regulation—absorbing an estimated 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually—has made it an increasingly contentious geopolitical asset. International pressure to protect the Amazon collides with Brazilian assertions of Sovereignty over its territory and the economic interests of ranchers, loggers, and miners who drive deforestation.

The Atlantic coastline stretches 7,491 kilometers—the longest in the Americas. Major cities from Belém to Porto Alegre cluster along this coast, where approximately 80% of Brazil’s population lives within 300 kilometers of the sea. The offshore pre-salt oil reserves discovered in 2006—beneath 2,000 meters of water, 1,000 meters of rock, and 2,000 meters of salt—transformed Brazil into a significant oil producer, with output exceeding 3 million barrels per day.

The cerrado (tropical savanna) of central Brazil has become the world’s agricultural frontier. Once considered wasteland, the cerrado now produces soybeans, corn, cotton, and beef cattle at a scale that has made Brazil the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, beef, chicken, orange juice, coffee, and sugar. Brazilian agribusiness feeds approximately 10% of the world’s population.

Historical Trajectory¶

Colonial and Imperial Legacies¶

Unlike its Spanish-speaking neighbors, Brazil was colonized by Portugal and achieved independence not through revolution but through royal fiat—Prince Pedro declared independence in 1822 and became Emperor Pedro I. The Brazilian Empire preserved territorial unity through the monarchy, while Spanish America fragmented into over a dozen republics. This early cohesion gave Brazil a scale advantage that persists.

The legacy of slavery, however, runs deeper in Brazil than in any other country in the Western Hemisphere. Brazil imported approximately 4.9 million enslaved Africans—ten times more than the United States—and was the last country in the Americas to abolish slavery (1888). The racial hierarchy established during slavery persists in attenuated but unmistakable form: Brazilians of African descent, who constitute approximately 56% of the population, earn on average 57% of what white Brazilians earn, are dramatically underrepresented in positions of power, and are disproportionately victims of police violence.

The Brazilian Model¶

Brazil’s economic trajectory has been defined by a cycle of spectacular growth followed by painful crisis:

The “Brazilian Miracle” of 1968-1973 produced GDP growth averaging 11% annually under military rule (1964-1985), fueled by state-directed industrialization, foreign borrowing, and infrastructure investment. The Itaipu Dam, the Trans-Amazonian Highway, and the nuclear energy program were monuments to this era’s ambition—and to its hubris. When global interest rates spiked in the early 1980s, Brazil’s debt crisis triggered a “lost decade” of stagnation and hyperinflation that peaked at 2,477% in 1993.

The Real Plan (1994), implemented by Finance Minister (later President) Fernando Henrique Cardoso, tamed inflation through a new currency and fiscal discipline. The subsequent decade of stability, combined with China’s commodity boom, produced the era of optimism in which Brazil won hosting rights for both the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympics.

The commodity-fueled boom of 2003-2013, under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), lifted approximately 40 million Brazilians out of poverty and expanded the middle class. Lula, a former metalworker and union leader, combined social spending with business-friendly policies, earning praise from both the left (for poverty reduction) and the right (for macroeconomic stability). Brazil’s GDP rose from approximately $550 billion in 2003 to $2.6 trillion in 2011.

The bust that followed—the worst recession in Brazilian history (2014-2016), a corruption scandal (Operation Car Wash) that implicated virtually the entire political class, the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff, the imprisonment and subsequent release of Lula, the election and polarizing presidency of Jair Bolsonaro—demonstrated how quickly Brazilian progress can reverse.

Strategic Position¶

Regional Hegemon¶

Brazil dominates South America by every metric—population, GDP, territory, military capability. Its economy is larger than the rest of South America combined. This preponderance creates both expectations and resentments. Brazil has traditionally exercised its regional influence through diplomacy rather than force, preferring institutional mechanisms (Mercosur, UNASUR) to military coercion.

Brazil has not fought a major war since the Paraguayan War (1864-1870)—the deadliest conflict in South American history, which killed perhaps 60% of Paraguay’s population. This long peace reflects both geographic insulation (the Amazon and the Andes create natural barriers) and a strategic culture that favors negotiation over confrontation.

BRICS and the Multipolar Ambition¶

Brazil is a founding member of BRICS—the grouping that, with the addition of new members, represents approximately 46% of the world’s population and 36% of global GDP. Lula has been particularly active in promoting BRICS as an alternative to Western-dominated institutions, advocating for De-dollarization, the New Development Bank, and a more representative global governance architecture.

Brazil’s appeal to China is substantial: it is China’s largest trading partner in Latin America, exporting soybeans, iron ore, oil, and beef worth approximately $90 billion annually. But Brazil has been careful to avoid choosing between Washington and Beijing, maintaining relationships with both while asserting its own interests—a diplomatic balancing act that reflects Brazil’s aspiration to be a truly independent global actor.

The Amazon as Geopolitical Asset¶

The Amazon’s importance to global climate stability has transformed it from a domestic resource into an international geopolitical issue. European governments have conditioned trade agreements on deforestation commitments. Norway and Germany have funded Amazon preservation through the Amazon Fund. And the United States and EU have pressured Brazil to strengthen environmental enforcement.

Brazilian politicians across the political spectrum resist what they perceive as an assault on sovereignty. The idea that foreign powers should have a say in how Brazil manages its territory evokes colonial-era exploitation. Bolsonaro’s aggressive deforestation policies (2019-2022) and Lula’s subsequent reversal have demonstrated how rapidly environmental policy can shift—and how consequential those shifts are for the global climate.

Challenges¶

Brazil’s failure to sustain growth and translate resources into lasting power stems from several structural weaknesses:

Inequality: Brazil remains one of the world’s most unequal societies. The Gini coefficient hovers around 0.53—among the highest outside Sub-Saharan Africa. The wealthiest 1% earn approximately 28% of national income. This inequality is not merely an economic statistic—it shapes politics (populist cycles between left and right), limits domestic consumption, undermines social cohesion, and fuels the violence that makes Brazil one of the world’s most dangerous countries (approximately 45,000 homicides annually).

Institutional fragility: Despite three decades of democracy, Brazilian institutions remain vulnerable to corruption, political polarization, and personalist rule. Operation Car Wash revealed systematic bribery involving virtually every major political party and the country’s largest corporations. The January 8, 2023, storming of government buildings in Brasília by Bolsonaro supporters echoed the institutional stress seen in other democracies.

The middle-income trap: Brazil’s GDP per capita—approximately $10,000—has stagnated for over a decade. Breaking through to high-income status requires productivity improvements, educational investment, and institutional reform that Brazil has repeatedly promised but not delivered.

Conclusion¶

Brazil’s geopolitical significance lies not in military power—its armed forces, while the largest in Latin America (approximately 360,000 active personnel), are oriented toward internal security and regional peacekeeping rather than power projection—but in its sheer scale, its resource endowment, and its potential to anchor a Latin American voice in global affairs. As Great Power Competition intensifies and the multipolar order takes shape, Brazil’s choices about alignment, trade, and institutional participation will matter more than ever.

The country of the future may yet arrive. But it will arrive on Brazilian time, shaped by Brazilian contradictions, and on terms that no external power can dictate.

Sources & Further Reading¶

• Brazil: A Biography by Lilia M. Schwarcz and Heloisa M. Starling — The most comprehensive single-volume history, tracing five centuries from colonial settlement to the contemporary political crisis with attention to race, inequality, and cultural identity.

• The Scramble for the Amazon and the Lost Paradise of Euclides da Cunha by Susanna B. Hecht — Essential for understanding the Amazon as both ecological reality and geopolitical battleground, combining environmental science with political analysis.

• Brazil Is the New America by James Dale Davidson — An optimistic (and now somewhat dated) assessment of Brazil’s economic potential, useful for understanding the narrative of Brazilian emergence that dominated the 2000s.

• Dancing with the Devil in the City of God by Juliana Barbassa — A journalist’s account of Rio de Janeiro’s transformation during the World Cup and Olympics era, illuminating the gap between Brazil’s global ambitions and its domestic realities.