In the aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and amid growing uncertainty around U.S. defense commitments, the question of strategic autonomy in Europe has moved from abstract policy debate to urgent security imperative. European nations, particularly within the EU, are reassessing their reliance on NATO — especially the United States — and exploring what it would mean to independently deter threats and defend their territory.

This article defines strategic autonomy, examines its evolution, analyzes defense-industrial developments in Germany and across the continent, and considers whether Europe is truly ready to stand on its own.

Editorial Note: This article is published by Geopol.uk as part of a broader collaboration with Grosswald.org under Veilmark Research. Many of the links in this piece refer to in-depth technical and industrial reporting from Grosswald's defense and procurement coverage, which provides detailed insight into Germany and Europe's evolving defense posture.

What Is Strategic Autonomy?

Strategic autonomy refers to the ability of a state or group of states to pursue their national security and defense objectives without excessive reliance on external powers. In the European context, it often means building the political will, military capabilities, and defense-industrial base to act independently of the United States when necessary — while still valuing the NATO alliance.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described it as the capacity to act "when necessary, and with partners when possible."

Key Pillars:

• Operational capability to project power and defend borders.
• Defense-industrial resilience and reduced reliance on U.S. systems.
• Political unity across EU member states.
• Interoperability within NATO, while increasing internal capability.

Historical and Strategic Context

Europe's dependency on American security guarantees has been both a strength and a vulnerability. NATO has deterred major conflict on the continent since 1949. Yet, events like Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw U.S. support and Germany’s delays in supplying Ukraine have exposed uncomfortable realities about transatlantic asymmetry.

The end of post-Merkel illusions illustrates how Germany’s strategic complacency is being shaken by a changing geopolitical landscape.

Germany as a Test Case for Strategic Autonomy

Defense Spending and Procurement Acceleration

Germany's historic EU€100 billion defense package has resulted in rapid but uneven progress. Key initiatives include:

• 120 Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles
• Leopard 2A8 MBT programs
• Digital command and control upgrades

Yet, procurement obstacles remain, including political indecision, industrial bottlenecks, and transatlantic tensions over systems like the F-35.

Industrial Innovation and Local Capabilities

Germany is ramping up its domestic production of advanced platforms:

• Diehl Defence's missile expansion
• Rheinmetall’s UGV and drone programs
• AI-integrated systems like Helsing’s HX-2

These initiatives are vital to ensuring that European armed forces are not only interoperable, but also sovereign in key domains.

NATO: Constraint or Complement?

NATO remains the cornerstone of European security. The alliance provides nuclear deterrence, expeditionary capabilities, and integrated defense planning that no single EU state can replicate. Yet reliance on the U.S. is a strategic risk:

• Political volatility in Washington
• Resource competition in the Indo-Pacific
• Gaps in European readiness

Efforts to build European Pillars within NATO, such as the ESSI/IRIS-T SLM programs, show how autonomy and alliance can coexist.

Toward a Realistic Autonomy

Strategic autonomy does not mean strategic isolation. It means responsibility-sharing, capability-building, and preparing for scenarios where U.S. assistance is delayed or absent. It requires:

• Defense spending benchmarks met across Europe
• Pan-European defense projects with real integration
• Redundant capabilities to NATO frameworks (e.g. ISR, cyber, logistics)

The EU’s investment in CBRN reconnaissance vehicles and advanced tactical doctrines are important signals of intent.

Conclusion

Europe's road to strategic autonomy is uneven, but accelerating. Germany’s procurement, doctrinal changes, and industry mobilization reflect the urgency of building independent capability — not to replace NATO, but to strengthen the European role within it. As threats multiply and U.S. support becomes less certain, strategic autonomy is no longer a theoretical goal. It is a strategic necessity.